VALID BEGINNING AT: IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm
EDT) ON 14 OCTOBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14
OCT (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14
OCT
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 20, 15, 15, 15 (14 OCTOBER - 17
OCTOBER)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 6 - 12
HOURS
MINOR BELT = 12 - 18 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM...
WASHINGTON STATE TO IDAHO TO MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO
WISCONSIN TO
MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO VERMONT
TO NEW HAMPSHIRE TO MAINE.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM...
UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN COASTAL REGIONS OF
EUROPE TO NORTHERN
RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND
MAY ALSO SPOT INFREQUENT PERIODS
OF ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
A moderately strong southward turning of the
interplanetary magnetic
field is resulting in intensified levels of high
latitude auroral activity.
Periods of infrequent minor auroral
substorming may produce isolated episodes
of visible sporadic
mid-latitude auroral activity over the next 6 to 12
hours. Since the
source of these enhanced solar wind conditions is not yet
well
established, there is a notable chance conditions may continue to
be
sporadically favorable for enhanced activity beyond the expiration
time of
this watch (19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 14 October). Nevertheless,
the most
volatile period will probably be during the next 12 hours.
This is not expected to be a very good event
for watching, unless you
are patient and willing to wait between
substorms.
Observations reported here are permanently
recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time
to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and
pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this
database would be appreciated.
** End of Watch **
Freeze this moment
A little bit
longer
Make each sensation
A little bit stronger
Make each impression
A little bit
stronger
Freeze this moment
A little bit longer
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