|
Here is the latest warning and watch for
tonight....kp index is allready at 5
good luck,
Brian
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
WATCH ISSUED: 08:25 UTC, 14 OCTOBER 2002
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
VALID BEGINNING AT: IMMEDIATELY VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 14 OCTOBER HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14 OCT
(UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14 OCT PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 20, 15, 15, 15 (14 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 6 - 12
HOURS
MINOR BELT = 12 - 18 HOURS ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM...
WASHINGTON STATE TO IDAHO TO MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO
WISCONSIN TO
MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO VERMONT TO NEW HAMPSHIRE TO MAINE. ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN COASTAL REGIONS OF EUROPE
TO NORTHERN
RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT INFREQUENT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY. SYNOPSIS...
A moderately strong southward turning of the
interplanetary magnetic
field is resulting in intensified levels of high latitude auroral activity. Periods of infrequent minor auroral substorming may produce isolated episodes of visible sporadic mid-latitude auroral activity over the next 6 to 12 hours. Since the source of these enhanced solar wind conditions is not yet well established, there is a notable chance conditions may continue to be sporadically favorable for enhanced activity beyond the expiration time of this watch (19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 14 October). Nevertheless, the most volatile period will probably be during the next 12 hours. This is not expected to be a very good event for
watching, unless you
are patient and willing to wait between substorms. This watch will remain valid through 19:00 UTC (3
pm EDT) on 14 October.
It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY
TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html WE WELCOME
PHOTOGRAPHERS TO PLACE IMAGES IN OUR
GALLERY
http://www.spacew.com/gallery Observations reported here are permanently
recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated. ** End of Watch ** Freeze this moment
A little bit longer Make each sensation A little bit stronger Make each impression
A little bit stronger Freeze this moment A little bit longer My photography:
http://www.astrobri.com --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.394 / Virus Database: 224 - Release Date: 10/3/02 |