Re: [APML] When is the peak of Leonids 2004 ?

[Dominic Cantin <dominiccantin@yahoo.ca>]

Thanks Javor for these detailed infos , that's what I search !

 

Dom :)

Javor Kac <javor.kac@guest.arnes.si> wrote:

Dom,

> I saw somewhere ( don't remember ) that the peak of Leonids
> will be in the night of 16 to 17 november 2004 but on
> spaceweather.com they announce that will be on 19 nov.2004
>
> I'm a litle bit confused , if you have the right answer ,
> thanks to point a link to help me.

The modellers have calculated the following dust trail encounters:

Vaubaillon et al.
Date and time of maxim. Trail Expected ZHR
2004 Nov 8 23:30 UTC 1001 50*
2004 Nov 19 06:42 UTC 1333 10
2004 Nov 19 21:49 UTC 1733 ~65
* we are already past this one - the observers did not notice such high
activity (the ZHR was about 10 LEO/h)

M. Sato
Date and time of maxim. Trail Aktivity*
2004 Nov 19 06:39 UTC 1333 low
2004 Nov 19 21:26 UTC 1733 moderate
2004 Nov 21 08:21 UTC 1135 low
* moderate activity corresponds ZHR a bout 50, with low ZHR about 10

Crossing of the comet's orbital plane
2004 Nov 17 08:25 UTC

As you can see, we can expect quite a few peaks this year (Nov 8/9, Nov
16/17, twice on Nov 19 and maybe Nov 21).

Some links on the Leonid's activity:




Clear skies!
Javor
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