Re: [APML] When is the peak of Leonids 2004 ?

[Javor Kac <javor.kac@guest.arnes.si>]

Dom,

> I saw somewhere ( don't remember ) that the peak of Leonids
> will be in the night of 16 to 17 november 2004 but on
> spaceweather.com they announce that will be on 19 nov.2004
>
> I'm a litle bit confused , if you have the right answer ,
> thanks to point a link to help me.

The modellers have calculated the following dust trail encounters:

Vaubaillon et al.
Date and time of maxim.  Trail  Expected ZHR
2004 Nov  8  23:30 UTC   1001    50*
2004 Nov 19  06:42 UTC   1333    10
2004 Nov 19  21:49 UTC   1733    ~65
* we are already past this one - the observers did not notice such high
activity (the ZHR was about 10 LEO/h)

M. Sato
Date and time of maxim.  Trail  Aktivity*
2004 Nov 19  06:39 UTC   1333    low
2004 Nov 19  21:26 UTC   1733    moderate
2004 Nov 21  08:21 UTC   1135    low
* moderate activity corresponds ZHR about 50, with low ZHR about 10

Crossing of the comet's orbital plane
2004 Nov 17 08:25 UTC

As you can see, we can expect quite a few peaks this year (Nov 8/9, Nov
16/17, twice on Nov 19 and maybe Nov 21).

Some links on the Leonid's activity:
<http://portail.imcce.fr/en/ephemerides/phenomenes/meteor/leonids/Leonid_forecast_2004.php>
<http://kaicho.pobox.ne.jp/tenshow/meteor/55p2004/>
<http://www.imo.net/calendar/cal04.html#Leonids>

Clear skies!
Javor
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